In a social media post on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” escalating tensions in the Middle East and beyond. Throughout a series of posts, he also issued a warning to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claiming that the US was aware of his location but chose not to eliminate him “for now.”
Trump’s remarks followed his decision to leave the G-7 summit in Canada early in order to focus on US strategies regarding Israel’s conflict with Iran. The President expressed his desire for “a real end” to the hostilities, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that he was “not too much in the mood to negotiate.”
Subsequently, Trump took to social media to urge that “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” sparking rumors of impending air strikes targeting the Iranian capital and other locations in the country. Following his statement, exit routes from Tehran became heavily congested with vehicles as residents attempted to flee the city. In response, several countries, including India, have issued travel advisories urging their citizens to leave Iran promptly.
Growing American Presence
These developments coincide with the US military’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its presence in the region. This includes the deployment of a US Navy Carrier Strike Group, spearheaded by the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier. Additionally, B-2 Spirit bombers have been stationed at the US-British base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, positioning them to potentially drop powerful bunker-buster GBU-57 MOP bombs on Iran if necessary.
The US B-2 bombers (file picture)
Should the US decide to join Israel in its conflict with Iran, it would contradict Trump’s previously stated policy of pursuing a diplomatic solution regarding Iran’s nuclear program rather than a military one. This move might also disappoint his MAGA supporters, who backed him in last year’s election based on his commitment to avoid entangling the US in foreign wars.
However, Trump’s threats could be a strategic maneuver designed to pressure Tehran into making significant concessions to resolve the latest crisis instigated by Israel. Reports suggest that Iran is under considerable military pressure from Israel and has been reaching out through Gulf countries, indicating its desire for a negotiated agreement with the US concerning the nuclear issue.
Green Signal To Netanyahu?
Last Friday, following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s initiation of the latest conflict, Trump declared that the US was not involved, although he admitted to having prior knowledge of Netanyahu’s decision. Many were skeptical, suggesting that Netanyahu likely received a go-ahead from Trump before launching the operation, marking Israel’s first war against a sovereign nation in 50 years.
Despite this, on the eve of Israel’s military action, Trump noted that the US was making good progress in its nuclear program discussions with Iran. Netanyahu’s move appeared aimed at undermining a potential agreement, coming just two days before the sixth round of negotiations. He justified the military action by claiming it was necessary to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb, which he described as an imminent threat.
It is widely believed that Netanyahu has been opposed to a negotiated settlement regarding Iran’s nuclear program, consistently favoring a military solution. He had even objected to the landmark 2015 agreement led by the United States and five other powers, under which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities and permit continuous and rigorous inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for relief from severe economic sanctions.
How Iran Increased Nuclear Enrichment
Trump also opposed the 2015 nuclear deal and withdrew the US from it in 2018 during his first term. Following the collapse of the agreement, Iran rapidly increased its nuclear enrichment activities, making significant advancements over the past few years.
Just a week ago, the IAEA reported that Iran had amassed uranium enriched to 60% purity, nearly weapons-grade, sufficient to potentially produce nine nuclear bombs. The report also marked the first breach of Iran’s non-proliferation obligations in 20 years.
Understandably, Israel and its Western allies are deeply concerned. With these developments, Netanyahu seized the opportunity to take action against Iran—an operation Israel had been contemplating for more than two decades. It’s plausible that Trump initially asked Netanyahu to delay in hopes of reaching a deal, but Netanyahu disagreed. However, when Israel achieved remarkable military successes in Iran, Trump was quick to claim credit.
Israel’s Expanding War Aims
Developments following the launch of Israel’s military campaign indicate that its objectives extend beyond dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities. As Netanyahu has emphasized, the campaign also has political goals. The attacks have already moved beyond nuclear and military targets, striking Iran’s oil and gas facilities, as well as its state broadcaster.
Netanyahu has openly expressed his desire to see the Islamic regime in Iran fall. Although Trump initially vetoed a plan to assassinate Khamenei, he did not entirely dismiss the idea. It now seems Trump may be willing to support Netanyahu’s plan, though not immediately.
Overthrowing the Iranian regime involves significant risks. Firstly, Iranians are unlikely to respond favorably to a call from Netanyahu, viewed as the aggressor, to rise against their government; such an appeal is more likely to unify the populace. Secondly, French President Emmanuel Macron has cautioned that regime change in Iran could lead to chaos.
The pursuit of regime change clarifies the limitations of merely dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In the initial days of its military operations, Israel targeted several of Iran’s nuclear sites, including Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and has killed more than a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists since Friday.
The success of the bombings on nuclear infrastructure remains uncertain, although the IAEA has reported the destruction of an above-ground pilot fuel enrichment plant at Natanz. Of the three sites, Fordow presents the greatest challenge to demolish.
Fordow: Iran’s Technological Ingenuity
Aware that Israel and the United States might one day attempt to destroy it, Fordow was constructed deep underground within a mountain. Situated 32 kilometers from the ancient central city of Qom, the nuclear facility reaches depths of up to 80 meters below the surface. It stands as both a symbol of Iran’s defiance and a technological marvel.
The Fordow nuclear enrichment plant
During President Obama’s tenure, Israel formulated a plan to deploy commandos to Fordow but ultimately deemed it too risky to execute. As one of Iran’s most fortified facilities, Fordow remains a challenging target. Amid the current military campaign, Israel is reported to have damaged or possibly blocked its entrance, though the facility itself is believed to remain intact.
The only bomb capable of seriously impacting Fordow is the American GBU-57, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which weighs 13,400 kilos and is precision-guided. This bomb can destroy structures up to 61 meters deep. To effectively demolish the Fordow nuclear plant, multiple MOPs would need to be deployed over several days.
Even if American bombs manage to destroy Fordow, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program would not be fully dismantled. Iran is believed to have established several other facilities within mountains to conceal its enriched uranium.
You Can’t Bomb The Nuclear Know-How
While Israel may have eliminated around a dozen nuclear scientists, it is likely that these experts have already passed on their knowledge and skills in uranium enrichment to the next generation of technocrats. For years, Iran’s scientists have faced numerous assassination attempts at the hands of Israel. However, neither Israel nor the US can eradicate this expertise through military action alone.
With the US now collaborating with Israel to target Iran’s nuclear program and military infrastructure, the likelihood of the Iranian regime pursuing a nuclear weapon increases. Iran understands the critical role such deterrence plays in ensuring its security. Consequently, Netanyahu has taken a significant risk by initiating the conflict against Iran last week.
Dirty Bomb
Another, even greater risk emerges with the US joining forces with Israel in the conflict. If Iran’s military and political leadership feels its survival is threatened, it might desperately opt to assemble a ‘dirty bomb’ quickly. Nuclear experts note that Iran does not require 90% enriched uranium to create such a device. In an article published in April 2022 by the Institute for Science and International Security think-tank, David Albright and Sarah Burkhar stated that “an enrichment level of 60 percent is sufficient to produce a compact nuclear explosive.” They further explained, “At a minimum, a device made from 60 percent HEU (highly enriched uranium) would be suitable for underground nuclear testing or delivery by a rudimentary system such as an aircraft, shipping container, or truck, enough to establish Iran as a nuclear power.”
Should Iran pursue this path, it could lead to unimaginable catastrophe for all involved. The world is ill-prepared for a nuclear calamity. Therefore, diplomacy must be given an opportunity to resolve the Iran-Israel conflict.
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