How to Manage Unpredictable Projects

Uncertainty doesn’t have to hinder project managers and teams. By breaking the work into manageable “slices” and embracing frequent feedback, you can effectively navigate changes and challenges while maximizing value.

Organizations want their projects to be both efficient and effective. Many project managers excel at efficiency—they create detailed plans, stick to schedules, optimize resources, and keep stakeholders updated. They focus on minimizing waste and maximizing value, which is essential.

However, efficiency alone doesn’t ensure effectiveness. A project may be completed on time and within budget, yet still fail to deliver value. Or, it may succeed but in a way that was unexpected, after the project manager and team adapted to new information along the way. Because projects are inherently unpredictable, how teams manage this uncertainty plays a significant role in their effectiveness.

The key to project success lies in staying focused on the outcomes that truly matter, says Anton Skornyakov, managing director of Agile Coach and author of The Art of Slicing Work. Anton’s concept of “slicing work,” rooted in Scrum, emphasizes that it’s not just about a methodology, but about ensuring steady, manageable progress, fostering a sense of shared ownership, and maximizing the value of the work produced.

How are Unpredictable Projects managed?

What does ‘slicing work’ mean?

Slicing work is a fundamental skill for structuring any project. By viewing projects through the lens of how work is organized—whether along horizontal lines (activities) or vertical lines (deliverables or “slices”)—we can make informed decisions about where to focus on iteration and learning, and where to optimize for efficiency.

A vertical slice of project work focuses on a specific result.

Small vertical slices allow for quick, frequent feedback, helping you:

  • Identify issues and roadblocks
  • Learn, adjust, and improve
  • Navigate uncertainty with confidence!

How does this fit in with Scrum?

I believe project management can be approached pragmatically, without adhering to any one methodology, whether it’s waterfall or agile. As a Scrum trainer, however, I’ve noticed that not everyone is familiar with the concept of creating small, deliverable slices that can be completed within weeks. Breaking a project down into activities is often intuitive, especially for experts in their field. However, breaking it into small, measurable deliverables can feel counterintuitive at first and typically requires learning through practice.

How do you balance efficiency and effectiveness?

In project management, we need to achieve two main goals: 1) deliver a target impact, also known as being effective, and 2) reach that target quickly and with minimal resources, also known as being efficient.

At certain stages of a project, it’s crucial to validate that our approach will be effective. This is where focusing on and learning from vertical slices becomes essential. It involves cross-functional collaboration and fast customer feedback. We tackle the riskiest aspects first, measure progress, and adjust quickly.

Once we’ve gained familiarity with a vertical slice, we can shift towards more detailed planning and optimize for efficiency in that area. This allows us to conduct in-depth analysis, establish design or architectural decisions upfront, identify potential risks and mitigation strategies, and use tools like Gantt charts with dependencies to track and report progress.

Optimizing for efficiency reduces the effort and resources required to reach a specific goal.
Optimizing for effectiveness maximizes the impact achieved with a set amount of resources.

So slicing work fits within a hybrid approach?

In environments where similar projects are carried out frequently, hybrid approaches are common. Take building a new house, for example. The process begins with an architect, who conducts some analysis but also iterates, presenting multiple prototypes before a project plan is finalized. Once the plan is in place, the actual construction is managed as a traditional project.

For unique, larger projects, slicing the work allows you to break the project into manageable parts, each with its own approach. This enables organizations to select the most effective way to structure the work, reducing waste, speeding up learning, better managing stakeholder expectations, and improving progress tracking across different areas of the project.

How does an organization’s culture factor into this?

If you’ve ever been through a true culture change, you know that resistance is something you must face—not just once, but continuously. Without clear, achievable results and regular feedback, new ways of working can become abstract and often fail to lead anywhere.

When we slice work, we create immediate feedback loops. This makes discussions more practical, and a different kind of leadership and culture begin to emerge. Slicing work turns change into something more goal-oriented and impact-focused. And when we see better results, it helps us understand why we need to put in the effort to shift our habits and challenge our existing beliefs.

What power or soft skills are most important for this approach?

Effective communication is essential. You must be able to both give and receive critical feedback, and create environments where such feedback can be exchanged openly and safely. Since most people seek harmony and avoid conflict, offering constructive criticism without creating discomfort is a challenging skill to develop. In the more unpredictable aspects of our projects, where surprises are to be expected, it’s likely that many of our ideas and plans won’t work as intended. When delivering a vertical slice and testing it, it’s crucial that team members feel safe to share critical feedback. Without this, they may remain silent, and the project risks continuing down the wrong path.

Key Takeaways

  • Work can be sliced in two ways: horizontally and vertically. The way you slice work influences how tasks are assigned, who takes ownership, and how effectively you can spot surprises and adapt as needed.
  • Horizontal slices focus on the specific actions, steps, or tasks required to achieve a result. They are ideal for predictable projects where efficiency is key and can be handled by less-experienced team members.
  • Vertical slices, on the other hand, are best for projects with unpredictable elements. They provide a broader view, helping you manage scope and track progress. These slices are suited for more experienced individuals or teams who can navigate complexity.

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