Renowned British-Canadian computer scientist, often referred to as the ‘Godfather of AI,’ Geoffrey Hinton has increased the likelihood that artificial intelligence could eliminate humanity within the next 30 years, cautioning that the technology might eventually ‘take control.’
Professor Hinton emphasized the importance of being ‘very careful’ and ‘very thoughtful’ in AI development due to its ‘potentially very dangerous’ nature.
While he initially estimated a 10 percent chance of AI leading to human extinction, he now predicts this probability to be between ’10 percent to 20 percent,’ driven by the accelerated pace of AI advancement.
In an interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Professor Geoffrey Hinton remarked, “We’ve never encountered entities more intelligent than ourselves.” He added, “How often do you see a less intelligent entity controlling a more intelligent one? Such instances are rare.
One exception is the dynamic between a mother and her baby, where evolution has allowed the infant some degree of control over the mother.” Professor Hinton, a recent Nobel Prize in Physics laureate, expressed concern about AI advancing “much faster” than anticipated, leaving insufficient time to conduct necessary research.
While his pioneering work laid the groundwork for machine learning—enabling computers to replicate human intelligence—his current focus has shifted toward promoting safer AI practices.
Last year, he garnered attention after resigning from his position at Google, expressing concerns that “bad actors” might exploit the technology to cause harm. Reflecting on the progress of AI compared to his initial expectations, he remarked, “I didn’t anticipate we’d be where we are now. I thought this level of advancement would come sometime in the future.”
He continued, “Currently, most experts in the field believe that within the next 20 years, we are likely to develop AIs that surpass human intelligence. That’s a very daunting prospect.” He likened the situation to “imagining ourselves as three-year-olds and they, the AI, as adults.”
Professor Hinton also compared the potential impact of AI to that of the industrial revolution. “During the industrial revolution, human strength became less relevant because machines could do more. If you needed to dig a ditch, you used a machine,” he explained. “Now, we’re facing something that is replacing human intelligence, rendering ordinary human intelligence no longer at the forefront. It will be machines leading the way.”
When asked about what life might look like in 10 or 20 years, Professor Hinton noted, “It will largely depend on how our political systems manage this technology. My primary concern is that we’re at a point where we must be extremely cautious and deliberate in developing a technology with significant potential dangers.”
He acknowledged the positive impacts AI could have, saying, “AI will bring tremendous benefits to healthcare and enhance efficiency across nearly every industry. However, we must proceed carefully with its development. It’s crucial to establish regulations to prevent misuse, yet our current political frameworks don’t seem equipped for this.”
Professor Hinton expressed concern that AI could negatively affect society if it leads to widespread job loss and benefits only the wealthy. “A large gap between rich and poor is detrimental to society,” he said.
He explained, “In the industrial revolution, machines didn’t take over humans simply because they were stronger. We remained in control due to our intelligence. Now, there’s a risk that these more intelligent entities could seize control, which is a major difference.”
Geoffrey Hinton is regarded as one of the three prominent pioneer ‘Godfathers’ of AI, along with Yann LeCun and Yoshua Bengio, following their receipt of the Turing Award for their contributions to the field.
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