A report indicated that China’s coal usage might reach its highest point by 2025, as the world’s leading consumer of fossil fuels intensifies its efforts to transition to clean energy.
China is the largest greenhouse gas emitter
Beijing: According to a report released on Wednesday, China’s coal consumption could peak by 2025 as the nation, the world’s largest fossil fuel consumer, steps up its commitment to clean energy. While China continues to be heavily dependent on coal and is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, it is also rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity. Although coal remains a dominant source in China’s energy portfolio, there are indications that the world’s second-largest economy is gradually reducing its reliance on this fossil fuel. Notably, coal power permits dropped by 83 percent during the first half of this year, and no new coal-based steelmaking projects were approved in the same timeframe.
According to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Finland and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) in Australia, 52 percent of surveyed experts predict that China’s coal consumption will peak next year. The percentage of experts who believe that China’s coal consumption has already reached its maximum has more than doubled since last year. “Achieving carbon neutrality in a rapidly growing economy like China is no easy feat, but the country’s substantial efforts are starting to bear fruit,” stated ISETS president Xunpeng Shi. Additionally, significantly more experts now believe that the country’s carbon dioxide emissions have either already peaked or will do so by 2025, the study noted.
Hitting targets
In recent years, experts have grown increasingly optimistic about China’s potential to reduce its reliance on greenhouse gases, as rapid advancements in wind and solar energy installations have enabled Beijing to meet its capacity targets six years ahead of schedule. However, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), noted there is still “little clarity on China’s emissions pathway.” This uncertainty leaves room for emissions to potentially rise until 2030, followed by “very slow” reductions thereafter, he explained.
Despite efforts to curb coal usage, China’s demand for coal surged last year, contributing to a global increase. The International Energy Agency predicts coal-fired power generation in China will grow again this year, but at the slowest rate in almost a decade. Moreover, energy consumption growth in China continues to outpace GDP growth and is “faster than in the transition pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement,” according to the CREA report.
Myllyvirta suggested that China must either accelerate its deployment of renewable energy further or steer economic development toward less energy-intensive practices. China aims to peak its emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero three decades later. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly ambitious emission reduction plans every five years, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). China is expected to submit its updated NDC by February next year.
An earlier report by CREA emphasized that China needs to set a “strong but achievable target of reducing emissions by at least 30 percent” by 2035. In November, Chinese officials passed an energy law aimed at “actively and steadily promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.”
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